Charlotte
was not included among the top 10 markets to watch for commercial real estate
during an industry forecast Tuesday. But the Queen City
got some promising nods for its growth potential. A moderator even said Charlotte could be “the new Austin, Texas”
in terms of its ability to attract people, create jobs and grow the office
market.
Austin, a tech-hub often favored by real
estate analysts, ranked No. 4 on the list of hot markets.
Charlotte
was also mentioned for its strong apartment market and net migration.
Overall, commercial real estate investors and developers feel
more confident about the industry than in
previous years, speakers said during a webcast titled “The pulse of the
commercial real estate industry,” by PwC. PwC,
along with the Urban
Land Institute, releases
the Emerging Trends in Real Estate, a report based off surveys and interviews,
that has highlighted the industry since 1979. The webcast talked about the
survey and other trends.
“It’s official, we’re in a recovery,” said Chuck
DiRocco, PwC’s director of real estate research. But, he said “it’s recovery
anchored in uncertainty.”
Investors have been buying and selling properties in the larger cities,
including San Francisco, New
York and San Jose,
which the survey listed as the top 3 markets to watch. Since the recession hit,
investors have favored the larger cities located near ports, known as 24-hour
gateway cities.
But the gateway markets have become crowded and prices for prime
properties have risen to near pre-recession levels, DiRocco said.
So investors are moving back into the secondary markets, which
include Charlotte, Raleigh,
Memphis, Portland
and Nashville. Raleigh ranks No. 11 on the list of markets to watch; Charlotte is 17th.
Investors are especially interested in cities that have strong high technology,
energy, education and healthcare industries, DiRocco said.
When determining the hot markets, the forecast’s authors focused
on markets that can best sustain strong job growth, as well as those boasting
strong population growth. Charlotte got a mention
for its strong net migration - ranking 7th out of the 51 metropolitan areas
studied.
“Where the jobs are at -- that is where investors are looking,”
DiRocco said.
Some economists have recently said Charlotte’s economic growth, as well as the
nation’s, has been disappointing. One local economist criticized Mecklenburg County,
and North Carolina,
for adding jobs too slowly. But there have been promising signs of recovery.
While commercial property prices remain well below their
pre-recession peaks, for example, Charlotte’s
uptown posted a record year for office building sales in 2012. Brokers sold more than
$500 million worth of office buildings, including the iconic Hearst Tower.
Brokers involved in the deals say the buyers are national and international
institutions.
During Tuesday’s 90-minute presentation, moderators stopped to
ask the more than 250 participants to answer survey questions. One question
asked people which secondary market they would consider acquiring a stabilized
office property in during 2013. Respondents could choose from Denver,
Charlotte, Austin
and San Jose.
Charlotte was the clear winner,
receiving more than 37 percent of the vote, prompting moderator Mitch Roschelle
to say “Charlotte may very well be the new Austin, Texas. That is good news in
that front.”
In the published forecast, respondents also pinpointed Charlotte, San Francisco
and Chicago as “market
movers” when it came to new development going forward.
Webcast presenters also addressed the apartment market, which is booming
nationally as well as in Charlotte. Rents are forecast to rise, but DiRocco said the industry
could be getting overbuilt, possibly by 2014 or 2015.
Nationally, retail has lagged most among commercial properties. The
retail industry
is still in recession and might move into recovery in 2014, according to the
webcast.
“I think investors remain
optimistic. They feel the recovery is real. And I think they feel that
commercial real estate continues to offer some of the best risk-adjusted
returns,” said PwC's Susan Smith, one of the forecast's authors.